Correlation causes concern September may be remembered as the month where the markets reached their most recent peak. At this stage the market has become very data dependant again, and the “lower for longer” argument is being well and truly tested as we approach the next US Federal Reserve Open Committee meeting. In the first two weeks of September we have seen the US S&P500 index decline, and more interestingly the global bond market also sell off (yields rise). This correlation in performance between bonds and shares has been something that
Expect the unexpected Last month the British public went to the polls to vote on staying in the Eurozone (Bremain) or leaving (Brexit). Brexit won by a vote of 51.9% to 48.1%. This shocked markets, with share values declining, the pound dropping to an historically low level, and bond market prices rising. While the result was surprising we feel that when you break down the results, the underlying issues are more interesting. The referendum had a turnout of 72% of voters, which was 6% more than the recent general election.